Will Petrol Prices Go Down in 2026? UK Forecast

UK petrol prices are unlikely to fall significantly in 2026. The most likely scenario is that unleaded stays within a 130–145p per litre range for most of the year, with the balance of risks tilted slightly upward. There is no structural reason for a sustained drop to the sub-120p levels seen before 2021.

That said, prices are not going to spike dramatically either. The extreme volatility of 2022 was driven by a unique combination of post-pandemic demand rebound and the Ukraine war supply shock. Neither is repeating.

Here is what the data says, what the key risks are on each side, and what you can do in the meantime.

Key Takeaways

• UK unleaded averaged 134–138p/litre in Q1 2026; diesel ran at 140–144p/litre (RAC Fuel Watch, 2026)
• Brent crude has traded in a $70–85 range, consistent with current UK pump prices
• The 5p fuel duty cut (52.95p/litre total) faces an uncertain future at the Autumn Budget
• Analysts forecast Brent averaging $75–82 in 2026, suggesting pump prices hold broadly flat (IEA Oil Market Report, 2026)
• The biggest single risk to lower prices is a major OPEC+ production increase; the biggest risk to higher prices is a Middle East supply disruption

What UK petrol prices look like right now

As of April 2026, the national average for unleaded petrol sits around 134–138p per litre. Diesel is slightly higher at 140–144p per litre (RAC Fuel Watch, 2026).

There is a 25–35p per litre spread between the cheapest and most expensive stations on any given day. Motorway services routinely charge 155–165p while nearby supermarket forecourts undercut them by 25p or more (CMA Retail Fuel Market Review, 2024). That spread means the most effective thing you can do today costs nothing: use a price comparison tool before you fill up.

Why prices are unlikely to fall significantly

Three structural factors work against a meaningful price drop.

Crude oil has a price floor. OPEC+ has demonstrated since 2022 that it will adjust output to defend oil prices above roughly $70 per barrel. If Brent dropped toward $65, expect production cuts within one to two quarters. That puts a practical floor under pump prices.

Fuel duty is already cut, not at risk of being cut further. The 5p temporary relief has been renewed annually since 2022, but the original rate was 57.95p. There is no political consensus to cut it further. If anything, fiscal pressure raises the risk of the cut being reversed, which would add approximately 6.5p/litre to pump prices overnight when VAT is included.

Refining margins remain elevated. European refining capacity tightened after the closure of several major facilities between 2020 and 2023. Wholesale to pump margins are higher than historical norms, partly explaining why pump prices have not fallen as quickly as crude in recent years (Competition and Markets Authority, 2024).

Scenarios where prices could fall

There is a credible path to prices dropping toward 125–130p/litre, though it requires specific conditions.

OPEC+ production increase. If OPEC+ decides to unwind production cuts (driven by revenue needs, market share concerns, or political pressure), crude could fall to $60–65/barrel. That would translate to roughly 10–12p reduction at the pump, all else equal.

Global demand slowdown. China's economic trajectory is the single biggest wildcard in oil demand. A deeper-than-expected slowdown could tip the market into surplus and pressure crude prices lower. The IEA revised global demand growth down twice in the first quarter of 2026 (IEA Oil Market Report, 2026).

GBP strengthening. Oil is priced in US dollars. A stronger pound makes oil cheaper in sterling terms. If USD/GBP moved from the current 0.79 to 0.84, that would cut roughly 5–6p per litre off wholesale costs.

Scenarios where prices could rise

Middle East supply disruption. Any significant escalation of conflict affecting Strait of Hormuz traffic (roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it) would drive Brent toward $100 or beyond. The 2022 experience showed how quickly this can feed through to UK pumps.

Fuel duty reversal. If the Chancellor reverses the 5p temporary cut at the October Autumn Budget, pump prices would increase by approximately 6.5p/litre immediately. This is a policy risk, not a market risk, and it has a fixed timing.

Refinery outages. Unexpected closures or maintenance at UK or European refineries can cause wholesale prices to spike faster than crude, particularly for diesel.

What analysts are forecasting

Major energy forecasters have converged on a moderate view for 2026:

• IEA: Brent crude to average $76–80 for 2026, slightly below 2025 average (IEA Oil Market Report, 2026)
• EIA (US Energy Information Administration): expects Brent to average $79 in 2026, down from $81 in 2025 (EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2026)
• World Bank: projects gradual moderation in energy prices through 2026–2027 (World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, 2026)

At $76–80 Brent and current duty/VAT levels, that implies UK unleaded in the 133–140p range. That is broadly where we are now.

The fuel duty decision is the wild card

The most impactful single event for UK pump prices in 2026 is not oil markets. It is the October Budget.

The 5p temporary cut has cost the Treasury approximately £2.4 billion per year. With public finances under pressure, there is a plausible case that it gets reversed or not extended. That would add roughly 6.5p/litre to pump prices (duty + VAT) with immediate effect.

On the other side, further cuts are unlikely given the fiscal context. The Chancellor could surprise the market with an extension, which would be neutral to current prices. But a reversal would be a material upward shock.

What drivers should do now

Petrol prices are not going to fall dramatically this year. The practical response is to minimise what you pay within current conditions:

1. Compare prices before filling up. The spread between cheapest and most expensive stations near you is typically 15–25p/litre. PetrolPal shows live prices from stations near your location.

2. Fill up midweek. Retail prices tend to dip on Tuesday and Wednesday when station pricing cycles reset (Competition and Markets Authority, 2024). Weekend fills are consistently more expensive on average.

3. Use supermarket forecourts as a baseline. Supermarkets undercut the national average by 3–5p/litre consistently (RAC Fuel Watch, 2026). For a 55-litre tank, that is £1.65–2.75 per fill.

4. Watch for Budget day. If the Autumn Budget reverses the 5p duty cut, fill up before the change takes effect. The duty change is typically immediate.

5. Check our weekly UK fuel price data. PetrolPal tracks live station prices so you can see actual local trends rather than relying on national averages.

Prices cited are national averages from RAC Fuel Watch and reflect early April 2026. Forecasts are based on publicly available analyst reports and are not financial advice.